The Market Update with EP Wealth Advisors Managing Director, Investments -
Adam Phillips, CFA^®, CAIA, CFP^®

Often quoted in major national media, Adam is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA^®), a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP^®), and has been included on the Forbes NextGen Best-in-State Wealth Advisors 2019 list. He is a member of the CFA Society of Los Angeles and the CFA Institute. Adam helps establish asset allocation strategy as a member of the EP Wealth Investment Committee, which supports all EP Wealth Advisors and their clients. The Committee’s top-down approach to portfolio construction begins with an outlook on the economy’s likely direction, followed by the implications for different economic sectors and asset classes. This culminates in strategic selection of the individual stocks, bonds, mutual funds or other investments deemed most appropriate for each individual client’s portfolio.

The Market Update

This week’s Market Update focuses on the financial ripple effects following the weekend’s strike on Iranian nuclear sites. While markets remain relatively calm for now, investors are watching oil prices closely—and keeping an eye on potential retaliation from Iran.

In this episode:

• Why markets may be underpricing escalation risk
• The critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global oil supply
• How U.S. oil independence changes the narrative—but doesn’t eliminate risk
• Historical market behavior after U.S. military action
• Why staying disciplined matters most during uncertain times

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Video Summary: 

Adam Phillips: Well, I'd originally planned on recapping last week's FOMC meeting, but really, that all takes a back seat. Now, following the weekend strike, uh, on Iranian nuclear sites, we are now in waiting mode. We are watching the market's response. We are waiting to see whether Iran will now retaliate and how they plan on doing that. Right now, it's interesting to see what the markets are. Positive. I'm actually looking; the markets are essentially flat, the dollar is down, and gold is slightly higher. Uh, and surprisingly, oil is down. This is really interesting. Over the weekend, we were watching this. We were watching as the Asian markets opened yesterday, oil was trading, uh, quite a bit higher, actually touched $80 a barrel, which was the highest in about a year. And the, the, uh, equity futures market, uh, was showing that, uh, we were going to have a pretty ugly day here. So far, that's not the case. To me. What that says is that the market is, uh, assigning a low probability to a meaningful escalation from here. I certainly hope that is the case, but ultimately no one knows. And so we are sitting here waiting and, uh, to see how this all plays out. This is still a very fluid situation, and obviously it just adds to an environment where there is already so much uncertainty around, uh, tariffs.

The outlook for interest rates. Uh, the fiscal policy, the big beautiful bill, is supposed to be making its way through the Senate this week. They're supposed to start voting, but really this is now top of mind for all of us, even for those of us that aren't looking at it, uh, through the context of the financial markets and the economic impact. So, just a few things to, uh, to share with you today. Uh, one is that I'll just highlight the fact that we're very. We, we are, uh, very mindful of oil prices right now. We think that that is really the area to watch if we're trying to gauge the potential economic impact and where Iran may look to, uh, focus their retaliation. I will highlight the fact that this is very different than in prior conflicts. We are actually now a net. Exporter of oil. And so I think that's good still. It doesn't mean that an oil disruption won't cause havoc on our economy, the global economy, and increase, uh, the inflationary pressures that we're already seeing, uh, from other things like tariffs. We are watching for a potential closure or partial closure of the Strait of Horus. This is a channel that Iran does control. It sees about 20% of daily, uh, oil, uh, go through, uh, this, this gateway. And so we are watching this very, very closely because any disruption to that area would see oil prices spike. And so that's one thing to watch. Beyond that, we do not know where this is going to go. We are watching it closely. I will just highlight the fact that historically these are, these events are short-lived when it comes to the impact on markets and the economy. We have seen that following these periods of, uh, of US military action, we actually see that in most cases, if you go back in history, the market is higher. Six months later. There are two exceptions here. Uh, one is, is, uh, is the, the beginning of World War II following the attacks on Pearl Harbor.

The second is, uh, the, the, um, uh, military action in Libya, uh, just a few years ago. And so these are just a couple, but generally speaking, the market is higher, uh, later. And so this is one of those reasons that we don't want to, even though it's, I, it is certainly fair to. To wonder where things will go from here and worry a little bit. What we don't want to do is take meaningful action in our portfolios because of this extra level of uncertainty that we are now facing. The market has historically moved higher over time, and so that's what we're going to stick to and stick to our long-term discipline. So we would encourage you to do the same. That being said, if you have any questions or wish to discuss this further, please don't hesitate to contact your financial advisor, and I'll look forward to updating you next week.