The Market Update 11/10/25

The Market Update with EP Wealth Advisors Managing Director, Investments -
Adam Phillips, CFA^®, CAIA, CFP^®

Often quoted in major national media, Adam is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA^®), a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP^®), and has been included on the Forbes NextGen Best-in-State Wealth Advisors 2019 list. He is a member of the CFA Society of Los Angeles and the CFA Institute. Adam helps establish asset allocation strategy as a member of the EP Wealth Investment Committee, which supports all EP Wealth Advisors and their clients. The Committee’s top-down approach to portfolio construction begins with an outlook on the economy’s likely direction, followed by the implications for different economic sectors and asset classes. This culminates in strategic selection of the individual stocks, bonds, mutual funds or other investments deemed most appropriate for each individual client’s portfolio.

Market Update: Government Shutdown Nears an End as Consumer Sentiments Slips

November 10, 2025 

After forty days, it looks like the longest government shutdown in U.S. history could finally be nearing an end. Over the weekend, members of the Senate reached a tentative funding agreement that would keep the government open through the end of January. 

Markets welcomed the news to start the week, but this is less a market catalyst than it is the removal of a potential headwind. While it brings a sense of relief, it doesn’t necessarily set the stage for a sharp rally in equities. 

This week, attention turns to consumer sentiment—an important measure of how Americans are feeling about the economy and their own financial outlook. The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level since 2022. 

Breaking the data down further shows a notable split: 

• Confidence among independent voters dropped to the lowest point since the question was first introduced in 1984. 

• Sentiment remains stronger among those with higher income and wealth, while lower-income households continue to feel the strain of inflation and limited investment participation. 

This divide is significant. The top 20% of households own nearly 90% of stocks and over half of all real estate. Rising market and property values have strengthened wealthier households’ balance sheets, but those without similar assets are feeling the effects of persistent inflation more acutely—dampening overall consumer confidence. 

As the holiday shopping season approaches, weaker confidence among consumers could weigh on spending and growth in the months ahead. For now, markets will be watching inflation trends closely, as a meaningful decline could give the Federal Reserve room to lower interest rates and provide support for the broader economy. 

Have More Questions About the Market and Investments? Talk to an EP Wealth Advisor!

EP Wealth Advisors offers a comprehensive range of services to help you invest with greater insight, as well as develop a holistic wealth management strategy. To discuss your finances and investment goals, we invite you to contact one of our advisors. 

Disclosures:

•  The need for a financial advisor or financial planner and/or the type of services required are specific to the uniqueness of each individual’s circumstances. There is no guarantee or warrantee that the services offered by EP Wealth Advisors, LLC will satisfy your specific financial services requirements. Services offered by other advisors may align more to your specific needs 

• Information presented is general in nature and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of the topics discussed. It is intended to serve as a tool containing general information that should assist you in the development of subsequent discussions. Content does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice nor is it intended to supplement professional individualized advice.  

• The content of this report is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication and cannot and does not accurately forecast future economic, market, or financial conditions; including changes to retirement benefits, social security, and/or Medicare. For this reason, any subsequent changes, and/or that occur after the publication of this presentation may cause the analysis encompassed herein to become inaccurate. Any references to future market or economic forecasts are based on hypothetical assumptions that may never come to pass.

• EP Wealth Advisors (“EPWA”) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information presented in this report. EPWA has used its best efforts to verify the data referenced. The information presented was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. However, EPWA cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information offered. All expressions of opinion are of the presenter and are subject to change without notice.
  
  
• EP Wealth Advisors, LLC is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registration with the SEC does not constitute an endorsement by the SEC, nor does it imply that EP Wealth Advisors Inc. has attained a certain level of skill or ability.

• Video transcripts are provided for information purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed. The technology used to generate transcripts may result in omissions, misinterpretations, or other errors. EP Wealth Advisors, LLC is not responsible for discrepancies between the transcript and the original video content.

Video Summary: 

Well, after 40 days of a government shutdown, it looks like there could finally be an off-ramp. We saw on Sunday, members of the Senate agreed to a potential funding bill to keep the government open until the end of January. The market this morning is cheering this news. We certainly view it as a positive, but we want to be careful here. 

I think this is really more of the removal of a potential headwind for the markets and for the economy, rather than a catalyst that's going to spark a furious equity rally. From here, what I want to focus on this week is some of the data that we got in recent days, and specifically, it's around the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. And here are numbers that we get every month, and I think focusing on consumer confidence is so important because obviously our economy relies so heavily on consumption. 

We want to know how the consumer is feeling. What I took away from this data is that consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, actually fell to the lowest level since 2022. Now, if we look underneath the hood, I think it's really interesting. If you look by political affiliation, normally what you see is that those who are aligned with the party in power tend to think the economy is in pretty good shape and have a fairly positive outlook on things. 

And that's no different. This time around, we see that Republicans, those who identify as Republicans, actually think things are pretty good right now. Not surprising. We see the opposite is the case for Democrats. If we want to look through this political noise, I think it's really interesting if we just look at those who view themselves as independents. 

Actually, their confidence and sentiment has fallen very sharply. I think that's really, really interesting. It's actually the lowest since this question was first added to the survey back in 1984. So that's really interesting. I think we want to look at this in terms of where the economy might be going, what type of impact this might have on consumer spending, and certainly, as we get closer to this holiday spending period, if this is something that does start to weigh on the consumer outlook and their willingness to spend, then it could have economic ramifications. So, it is something that we keep an eye on.  

Now I don't have a visual on this, but I think it was interesting. I always like to look at more than just that headline number on sentiment. And what I saw is that you also see a difference in those who are in the higher-income tiers and higher wealth tiers versus those who are in the lower-income tiers. And so right now I'd say the weakness is fairly broad, but we are seeing a notable impact on sentiment, uh, among those in the lower income tiers and those households that don't make as much, maybe don't have as much invested in the stock market or in real estate, that haven't really seen that boost. 

To their wealth or their balance sheet in recent years, let's remember the fact that the top 20% of households actually own close to 90% of stocks and over 50% of real estate. And so as their values have gone higher, it's certainly nice for those who are lucky enough to own a home or a stock portfolio. But those who are left behind are the ones who are really feeling the pain of ongoing inflation. 

And over time, that does weigh on confidence, and it weighs on spending. So these are the things that we're going to keep an eye on, and it's certainly one of the reasons that. We are hopeful that the Fed will eventually be able to reduce rates even further, but of course, we need inflation to cooperate so that it gives the Fed the room to provide more accommodative policy. 

 I'll leave it there for this week. If you want to talk about any of these topics in more detail, please feel free to reach out to your financial advisor. I'll look forward to seeing you next week.