The Market Update 06/30/25

The Market Update with EP Wealth Advisors Managing Director, Investments -
Adam Phillips, CFA^®, CAIA, CFP^®

Often quoted in major national media, Adam is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA^®), a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP^®), and has been included on the Forbes NextGen Best-in-State Wealth Advisors 2019 list. He is a member of the CFA Society of Los Angeles and the CFA Institute. Adam helps establish asset allocation strategy as a member of the EP Wealth Investment Committee, which supports all EP Wealth Advisors and their clients. The Committee’s top-down approach to portfolio construction begins with an outlook on the economy’s likely direction, followed by the implications for different economic sectors and asset classes. This culminates in strategic selection of the individual stocks, bonds, mutual funds or other investments deemed most appropriate for each individual client’s portfolio.

Market Hits New High as First Half Closes—But Uncertainty Remains

As the first half of 2025 wraps up, the S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high—rebounding over 25% since April. But elevated valuations, looming tariff deadlines, and unresolved fiscal policy keep investors on edge.

In this update:

• What drove the market’s sharp rebound
• Why caution is still warranted heading into Q3
• Key areas to watch: trade policy, fiscal negotiations, and corporate earnings

Have More Questions About the Market and Investments? Talk to an EP Wealth Advisor!

EP Wealth Advisors offers a comprehensive range of services to help you invest with greater insight, as well as develop a holistic wealth management strategy. To discuss your finances and investment goals, we invite you to contact one of our advisors. 

Disclosures:

•  The need for a financial advisor or financial planner and/or the type of services required are specific to the uniqueness of each individual’s circumstances. There is no guarantee or warrantee that the services offered by EP Wealth Advisors, LLC will satisfy your specific financial services requirements. Services offered by other advisors may align more to your specific needs 

• Information presented is general in nature and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of the topics discussed. It is intended to serve as a tool containing general information that should assist you in the development of subsequent discussions. Content does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice nor is it intended to supplement professional individualized advice.  

• The content of this report is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication and cannot and does not accurately forecast future economic, market, or financial conditions; including changes to retirement benefits, social security, and/or Medicare. For this reason, any subsequent changes, and/or that occur after the publication of this presentation may cause the analysis encompassed herein to become inaccurate. Any references to future market or economic forecasts are based on hypothetical assumptions that may never come to pass.

• EP Wealth Advisors (“EPWA”) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information presented in this report. EPWA has used its best efforts to verify the data referenced. The information presented was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. However, EPWA cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information offered. All expressions of opinion are of the presenter and are subject to change without notice.
  
  
• EP Wealth Advisors, LLC is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registration with the SEC does not constitute an endorsement by the SEC, nor does it imply that EP Wealth Advisors Inc. has attained a certain level of skill or ability.

• Video transcripts are provided for information purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed. The technology used to generate transcripts may result in omissions, misinterpretations, or other errors. EP Wealth Advisors, LLC is not responsible for discrepancies between the transcript and the original video content.

Video Summary: 

Adam Phillips: 

Well, if you can believe it, we are almost through the end of the first half of the year. And perhaps more surprisingly than that, the market's actually hit an all time high. Last Fridays. This was the first high since February and un, unless you were fortunate enough to be living under a rock, uh, through the first half of, of the year and, and missed a lot of the drama that played out, um, we, we remember that the markets actually fell about 20% from their February peak.

In April, but since then they've recovered about 25%. So now we're looking at, at least as of this recording, we're looking at a stock market, the s and p 500, which is up just, uh, a little bit more than 5% for the year. So pretty amazing rebound here. And again, just more evidence that you don't want to. You, you don't want to give into to the temptation to sell or your emotions when it seems that we have so many risks facing us, it is so hard to predict the short term [00:01:00] moves in the market.

I. This is just additional evidence to stay the course when you're faced with these types of challenges as an investor. So as we start, as we look towards the, the second half of the year, I'm about to go into, uh, my own, uh, cave that, uh, I enter in the, uh, at the end of every quarter to start working on the updated, uh, market outlook, slides, the newsletter.

Here's some of the things that I'm focused on now. The markets, as I mentioned, they're back to an all time high. Valuations are elevated for now. The good thing is that the cease fire between Israel and Iran seems to be holding. And so investors are now going to turn their attention back to tariffs, which we are fast approaching that July 9th deadline, waiting for some additional agreements to be announced, uh, to hopefully get a little bit more clarity for ourselves.

For the Federal Reserve, uh, and for, uh, businesses around the world that are really trying to, to navigate in a, a fairly dark environment right now. The other one we're [00:02:00] watching is the big beautiful Bill and where this fiscal package ends up, uh, the, there was originally a July 4th really self-imposed deadline or a goal to get something done, but the Senate.

Continues to talk about this. There are still some hurdles, a lot of disagreement even within the Republican party. So we'll wait and see where this all shakes out. But for now, the economy is holding up. We're going to keep an eye on the

labor markets going forward. We're going to keep an eye on earning season as it gets underway here in a couple of weeks.

Uh, but, uh, but we would not suggest that, uh, the 25% gain that we've seen over the last. Couple of months. This rebound is going to continue in a linear fashion. We know that there's, we need some additional catalyst here to move higher, and we know that we're also facing some near term headwinds. And so for us, we are not stepping on the gas pedal within, uh, in portfolios.

We have a neutral allocation to equities still, but we're going to watch this and see how things play out at the end of the day. We are always going to take a long-term approach and we'll [00:03:00] respond, uh, to data and, and not to headlines and so I'll look forward to checking in with you again next time.

Until then, please feel free to reach out to your advisor if you have any questions.